Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd35e…c2ab crypto 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate95%124W / 6L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$33
crypto 40% +$16
other 0% +$9
economics 0% +$5
tech 0% −$3
world 0% +$1
weather 0% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 20 -4.3% -13.4% 95% 0% -9.7%
all 130 +4.1% -5.8% 95% 22% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 22% -9.3%
10% -14.8% 9% -18.0%
15% -23.0% 5% -25.9%
20% -30.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.11 per $1 lost it wins $4.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses124 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)130 / 133
History coverage626d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 95¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 27 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? May 17 $192 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30? May 05 $4 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? May 05 $4 $0 +4%
Will Netflix dip to $35 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 22? Apr 26 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $209 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $206 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $201 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 20? Mar 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $208 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 14 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on March 8? Mar 10 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 1? Mar 02 $207 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Feb 28 $204 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $204 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $206 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $198 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 1 Feb 15 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 13 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 9? Feb 10 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 5? Feb 05 $197 $0 +0%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Feb 04 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 2? Feb 04 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 27? Jan 28 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on January 24? Jan 24 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $195 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $94 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $3 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $3 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $199 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $203 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $192 42d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 94¢ $5 50d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? BUY No 84¢ $6 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $185 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $187 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $191 64d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $196 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $195 75d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 76d
Will Netflix dip to $35 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 76d
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $4 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $203 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $209 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $206 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $201 94d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 99¢ $3 97d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $200 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $208 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $203 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $205 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $205 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.37 · official $100.37 (match) · 329 history records