Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd35e…a1e8 sports 1213 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$3,134 (-23%) realized +$188 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%638W / 550L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$49
14 days−$50
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$91
other 23% +$385
world 3% +$13
politics 1% −$43
tech 1% −$39
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +13.4% +2.6% 56% 53% -4.1%
≤30d 372 +4.9% -5.1% 52% 50% -9.6%
≤90d 1188 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 49% -8.0%
all 1188 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 49% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 49% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 43% -16.8%
15% -27.0% 36% -24.8%
20% -34.2% 31% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$483
Realized+$188
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses638 / 550
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions34
Markets (closed)1188 / 1213
History coverage67d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 1188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $101 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $33 $46 +$13 (+40%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 60¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 87¢ 93¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stage Bebop 51¢ 50¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+2%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $15 $20 +$4 (+29%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 78¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 50¢ 92¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+85%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ 80¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+31%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Dembele 52¢ 50¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 40¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+56%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 75¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 48¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 31¢ 45¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+43%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 64¢ 12¢ $31 $6 −$26 (-82%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 30¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+233%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 86¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 75¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Team Liquid 65¢ 45¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $15 +$18 +121%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $40 −$9 -22%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$5 +158%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +62%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $58 −$19 -32%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $44 −$44 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +42%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +24%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $18 −$3 -20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $67 +$22 +33%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $28 +$77 +275%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +110%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$46 +132%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 +$52 +388%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $17 +$9 +53%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $30 −$22 -74%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $58 −$44 -76%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$12 +320%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $18 +$16 +88%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $14 +$13 +95%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 +$4 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $16 +$4 +26%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $9 +$3 +27%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $14 −$2 -15%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $25 −$4 -16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $17 −$2 -10%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $24 −$11 -46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $34 +$38 +110%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $23 $0 -2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $47 +$21 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $3 0m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 46¢ $4 48m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 49¢ $11 51m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 51¢ $1 51m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 41¢ $3 51m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 42¢ $9 51m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 99¢ $33 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 58¢ $7 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 50¢ $15 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $12 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 99¢ $38 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 90¢ $21 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $9 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $8 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $0 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $19 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 41¢ $19 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 41¢ $40 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 72¢ $8 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 57¢ $1 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 57¢ $2 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ $30 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 62¢ $2 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $7 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $15 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $5 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $5 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.07 · official $482.88 (match) · 3500 history records