Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd35d…ec11 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$49 (-11%) realized −$38 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$34
world 33% +$5
finance 12% −$10
culture 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$7
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -51.0% -55.7% 27% 20% -32.1%
≤30d 15 -51.0% -55.7% 27% 20% -32.1%
≤90d 15 -51.0% -55.7% 27% 20% -32.1%
all 15 -51.0% -55.7% 27% 20% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.7% 20% -32.1%
10% -59.9% 7% -38.6%
15% -63.8% 7% -44.5%
20% -67.3% 0% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Open positions24
Markets (closed)15 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 47¢ 98¢ $14 $29 +$15 (+107%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 50¢ 57¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 73¢ 76¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? No 84¢ 86¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 87¢ 86¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 95¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 81¢ 84¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No 74¢ 69¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 38¢ 41¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? No 23¢ 14¢ $11 $7 −$5 (-41%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 54¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+36%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? No 90¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 70%+? No 97¢ 86¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.50T on June 30? No 64¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-43%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 49¢ $19 $2 −$17 (-90%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 61¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-86%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $7.6B? No 95¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +18%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -84%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $29 +$3 +11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $3 $0 +2%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $6 +$3 +44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $17 −$6 -35%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $1 −$1 -67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 84¢ $25 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 1h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee BUY No 74¢ $10 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 23¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 23¢ $11 5h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 86¢ $3 13h
Will NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $7.6B? BUY No 95¢ $1 15h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 27h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 29h
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY No 90¢ $5 37h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $9 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $6 44h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $9 45h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $10 46h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 46h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $25 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.28 · official $284.59 (match) · 106 history records