Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd35d…ea31 crypto 522 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+0%) realized +$122 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%233W / 288L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$290
7 days+$290
14 days+$269
30 days−$798
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$1,718
sports 25% +$643
other 10% −$189
world 2% +$52
tech 0% −$11
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +21.2% +9.7% 60% 60% +11.6%
≤30d 98 -3.3% -12.5% 42% 41% -16.7%
≤90d 282 -10.2% -18.8% 45% 42% -10.9%
all 521 -12.5% -20.8% 45% 41% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 41% -12.0%
10% -28.4% 40% -20.4%
15% -35.3% 36% -28.1%
20% -41.7% 32% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$64 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses233 / 288
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)521 / 522
History coverage165d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 34¢ $123 $85 −$38 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $203 +$175 +86%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $142 −$140 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $202 +$120 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$134 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$89 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $154 +$62 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$135 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$75 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$109 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $22 −$22 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 30 $237 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 30 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 30 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 30 $79 +$174 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 30 $78 +$96 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 30 $184 −$47 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 30 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 30 $84 +$118 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 30 $105 +$120 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 30 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 30 $131 +$164 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 30 $232 +$82 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 30 $85 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 30 $150 +$85 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 30 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 30 $105 −$28 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 30 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 30 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $233 −$100 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 30 $98 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 29 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 29 $22 +$32 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $79 +$138 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 29 $52 +$77 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $26 +$106 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $52 +$68 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 29 $32 −$30 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $198 +$289 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 29 $105 +$134 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 29 $208 −$68 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 29 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $125 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $378 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $142 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $322 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $239 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $128 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $76 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $88 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $60 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $179 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.85 · official $87.33 · 1340 history records