Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D3 0xd359…d361 crypto 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 693d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,619 (-5%) realized −$152 · open −$1,467
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%42W / 42L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$42
14 days+$20
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$1,077
world 17% +$426
other 14% −$116
tech 10% −$854
culture 3% +$253
finance 2% −$634
politics 2% +$8
economics 1% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +31.3% +18.8% 100% 100% +25.1%
≤30d 12 +14.4% +3.5% 75% 67% +0.9%
≤90d 37 -14.0% -22.2% 62% 35% -8.2%
all 84 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 33% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 33% -11.4%
10% -16.9% 24% -19.9%
15% -24.9% 18% -27.6%
20% -32.3% 13% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$214 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

693d coverage
Net worth$1,272
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$1,467
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses42 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage693d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $1,101 $612 −$489 (-44%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $503 $436 −$67 (-13%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $516 $200 −$316 (-61%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 24¢ 4¢ $99 $17 −$82 (-83%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $510 $6 −$504 (-99%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 23 $62 +$29 +46%
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P Jun 20 $35 +$12 +33%
Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 20 $13 +$2 +15%
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? Jun 15 $21 −$8 -36%
Will "European Union" be said during the next episode of the All-In Po Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 05 $38 +$12 +32%
Will "SpaceX" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 02 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May? Jun 01 $532 +$28 +5%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $342 +$36 +11%
Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? May 30 $62 +$8 +13%
Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? May 27 $44 +$18 +40%
Will Trump post "Midterm" on Truth Social this week? May 25 $17 +$36 +213%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? May 23 $1,032 +$60 +6%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 22 $21 +$20 +94%
Will "Middle East" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podca May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Insurance" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump post "Cuba" on Truth Social this week? May 17 $88 −$87 -99%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? May 16 $883 +$66 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 15? May 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $25 +$25 +100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 14 $1,003 −$1,003 -100%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 14 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $1,061 +$41 +4%
Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 12 $366 +$14 +4%
Will "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 12 $154 +$6 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $1,003 +$1,277 +127%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this May 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 06 $115 +$6 +5%
Will "Apex" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 06 $203 +$7 +3%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 06 $203 +$35 +17%
Will "Unchosen" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 01 $20 −$19 -96%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $497 +$43 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Apr 13 $550 −$547 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? Apr 12 $500 +$133 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20? Mar 19 $98 −$68 -69%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? Mar 19 $118 −$62 -52%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 18 $496 +$136 +27%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? Feb 12 $1,099 −$1,099 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Feb 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? Jan 31 $3 +$57 +1787%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Jan 31 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Jan 31 $177 −$107 -60%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $50 −$20 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 30 $998 +$38 +4%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jan 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Jan 23 $311 −$311 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $91 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 9h
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P BUY Yes 75¢ $17 6d
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P BUY Yes 83¢ $4 6d
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P BUY Yes 72¢ $14 6d
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 7d
Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast BUY Yes 86¢ $13 7d
Will "European Union" be said during the next episode of the All-In Po BUY Yes 18¢ $15 12d
Will "SpaceX" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po BUY Yes 73¢ $21 20d
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J BUY Yes 76¢ $12 21d
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J BUY Yes 74¢ $26 21d
Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 25d
Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 25d
Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 25d
Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 25d
Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 25d
Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? BUY Yes 70¢ $44 27d
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May? BUY No 95¢ $95 28d
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May? BUY No 95¢ $437 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 30d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 30d
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $342 30d
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 31d
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? SELL Yes 84¢ $40 31d
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 91¢ $182 31d
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 31d
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 31d
Will "Middle East" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podca BUY Yes 60¢ $10 32d
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 96¢ $259 32d
Will Trump post "Midterm" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 44¢ $8 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,272.46 · official $1,272.46 (match) · 603 history records