Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd359…858d crypto 186 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (630 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%125W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day630.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (630 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 43% -11.3%
≤30d 186 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 43% -11.3%
≤90d 186 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 43% -11.3%
all 186 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 43% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover630.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 43% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 26% -19.8%
15% -26.7% 18% -27.5%
20% -33.9% 13% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses125 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day630.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$14 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$6 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$20 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 866 history records