Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd354…4d78 crypto 367 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$909 (-8%) realized −$906 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%111W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$780
14 days−$536
30 days−$664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 34% −$419
crypto 32% −$301
other 27% −$223
sports 4% −$138
world 2% −$48
politics 1% −$120
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% −$7
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -54.7% -59.0% 20% 17% -45.0%
≤30d 138 -19.2% -26.9% 31% 25% -22.2%
≤90d 263 -26.0% -33.0% 25% 21% -22.7%
all 363 -21.3% -28.8% 31% 25% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 25% -19.7%
10% -35.6% 21% -27.4%
15% -41.8% 16% -34.4%
20% -47.5% 9% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$906
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses111 / 252
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)363 / 367
History coverage102d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 23? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 23? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 23? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $200 +$106 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $110 −$52 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $44 +$87 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $19 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 −$7 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$7 +315%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $76 −$22 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$11 +48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 17 $16 −$5 -28%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 17 $92 −$42 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $29 −$14 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $33 +$5 +16%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 4? Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 17 $82 −$11 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 4? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$12 -41%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 17 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $465 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 17 $23 −$20 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $118 +$40 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 23? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 10m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 52¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $43 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 59¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 59¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 23¢ $29 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.29 · official $85.81 (match) · 1559 history records