Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd352…4ad6 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 211d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$56,560 (-6%) realized −$58,005 · open +$1,445
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate26%51W / 145L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,498per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$65,080now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 212d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$652
other 29% −$15,654
politics 10% −$3,644
economics 9% −$2,704
finance 2% −$590
crypto 1% −$739
sports 1% −$1,434
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-55.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -84.3% -85.8% 6% 3% -69.8%
≤30d 112 -80.3% -82.2% 10% 4% -60.9%
≤90d 118 -77.0% -79.2% 12% 4% -48.9%
all 195 -51.0% -55.6% 26% 10% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.6% 10% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -59.9% 7% -28.2%
15% -63.8% 4% -35.1%
20% -67.3% 4% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$3,924) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$704 vs −$1,121 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$65,080
Realized−$58,005
Unrealized+$1,445
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses51 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions25
Markets (closed)196 / 119
History coverage212d ⚠
Avg bet$7,498
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $9,033 $9,063 +$31 (+0%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $6,718 $6,808 +$90 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $6,459 $6,600 +$141 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 76¢ $6,597 $6,460 −$137 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $4,875 $4,935 +$60 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 99¢ $4,000 $4,932 +$932 (+23%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 49¢ 48¢ $4,900 $4,850 −$50 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $4,140 $4,050 −$90 (-2%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $3,782 $3,825 +$43 (+1%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 64¢ 67¢ $2,967 $3,092 +$125 (+4%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $2,151 $2,172 +$21 (+1%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1,559 $1,581 +$22 (+1%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,491 $1,492 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 70¢ $1,240 $1,188 −$52 (-4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $750 $875 +$125 (+17%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $661 $666 +$4 (+1%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 72¢ 66¢ $720 $655 −$65 (-9%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $477 $531 +$53 (+11%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $480 $489 +$9 (+2%)
Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 75¢ 95¢ $277 $352 +$75 (+27%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 62¢ 62¢ $224 $226 +$2 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 12¢ 80¢ $18 $121 +$103 (+571%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 74¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 38¢ 46¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DeWayne Davis win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jazz Hampton win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the most votes in the first round of the Jun 25 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Kaleo win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chartfu win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jun 25 $2,496 −$4,670 -187%
Will Jesse Pollak appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Jun 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $1,358 −$1,358 -100%
Will Farokh win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Joey Moose win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Jun 25 $5,287 −$7,557 -143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2PM ET Jun 25 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Clouted win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Eyearea win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $87 −$70 -80%
Will Scottie Pippen win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech? Jun 25 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Vance Spencer win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on September 2 Jun 25 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Kain Warwick win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 25 $82 +$454 +554%
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker? Jun 25 $1,066 −$1,066 -100%
Will Lito Coen win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $77 −$61 -79%
Will CoinMamba win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Steady Lads Crew win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Kash Patel out by September 30? Jun 25 $294 −$294 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Laura Shin win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3PM ET Jun 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Will DegenSpartan win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 +$5 +6%
Will Jordi Alexander win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥45.5% on September 26? Jun 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Will DeFi Dad win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Jun 25 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff? Jun 25 $2,085 −$2,085 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during conference with Putin on August Jun 25 $2,550 −$2,550 -100%
Will Sifu win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will 达人 Wenxue600 win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Rektmando win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Jun 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bold Leonidas win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Ponzi Trader win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Keyboard Monkey win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $102 −$73 -71%
Will Larry Cermak win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Will IcoBeast win the Synthetix trading competition? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 47m
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 48m
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $283 51m
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $317 54m
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $288 55m
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $43 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 78¢ $6,263 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $62 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $644 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $150 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,144 1h
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $4,646 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 75¢ $378 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $936 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $70 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $70 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $35 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $70 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $70 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $70 1h
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $109 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,144 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $666 1h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,183 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19,870 1h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $6,528 1h
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,536 1h
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $604 1h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65,079.99 · official $65,079.99 (match) · 3500 history records