Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D3 0xd350…151d sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$107
other 3% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.5% -12.6% 62% 62% -7.9%
≤30d 21 -3.5% -12.6% 62% 62% -7.9%
≤90d 21 -3.5% -12.6% 62% 62% -7.9%
all 21 -3.5% -12.6% 62% 62% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 62% -7.9%
10% -21.0% 48% -16.7%
15% -28.6% 14% -24.8%
20% -35.6% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$43 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage5d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fight to Go the Distance? No 59¢ 52¢ $150 $135 −$15 (-10%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 76¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) New York Yankees 72¢ 94¢ $90 $117 +$27 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$60 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $91 +$22 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $121 +$41 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $60 +$12 +20%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $45 −$16 -36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $121 +$39 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $131 −$130 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $101 +$23 +23%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $100 +$15 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$36 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $99 +$29 +29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $99 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $91 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $121 14h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 59¢ $61 14h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 58¢ $61 14h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 59¢ $30 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $60 15h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 44¢ $29 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $45 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $151 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $91 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $99 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $58 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $30 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $121 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $60 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $121 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $40 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $99 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $101 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $122 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $99 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.20 · official $372.20 (match) · 45 history records