Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd34f…1c95 crypto 228 markets active 2h ago coverage 876d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$682 (-0%) realized +$1,522 · open −$2,204
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate89%201W / 25L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$1,933per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$13,224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,056
7 days−$1,877
14 days−$1,723
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$3,175
world 26% +$3,362
sports 10% −$1,854
tech 4% +$78
politics 4% +$314
finance 2% +$333
other 1% +$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.7% -13.8% 89% 11% -12.0%
≤30d 55 -0.8% -10.3% 89% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 213 -2.9% -12.1% 91% 6% -9.3%
all 226 -3.7% -12.9% 89% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 8% -9.2%
10% -21.2% 1% -17.9%
15% -28.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$2,793) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$364 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

876d coverage
Net worth$13,224
Realized+$1,522
Unrealized−$2,204
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses201 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)226 / 228
History coverage876d
Avg bet$1,933
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $12,991 $12,910 −$81 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 56¢ $2,437 $314 −$2,123 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $426 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10,471 +$21 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,809 −$2,808 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,075 +$16 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $450 +$50 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,018 +$664 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $3,697 +$16 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1,977 +$23 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1,054 +$5 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $300 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $810 +$10 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $8,534 +$33 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $3,126 +$39 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15,985 +$15 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $205 −$52 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,185 +$29 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5,703 +$5 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $896 +$4 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,951 +$49 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,053 +$139 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,458 +$3 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $5,983 +$12 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9,996 +$1,182 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,747 +$281 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $34 +$2 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,543 +$178 +3%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $1,518 +$182 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $3,508 −$451 -13%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $369 +$11 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $1,879 +$31 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $2,793 +$100 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $1,204 +$8 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? May 28 $2,315 −$363 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $6,843 +$295 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1,866 −$50 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $1,889 −$20 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $1,730 +$72 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $1,814 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $3,989 +$11 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $6,366 +$56 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $6,357 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 20? May 21 $6,351 +$6 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $107 on May 20? May 20 $75 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $108 on May 20? May 20 $964 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 20? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on May 20? May 20 $37 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on May 20? May 20 $1,162 +$1 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on May 20? May 20 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $6,333 +$14 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 18? May 19 $6,299 +$30 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,978 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6,131 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,880 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,972 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $227 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $199 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $96 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $287 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $384 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $671 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $480 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $84 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $202 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $3 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $386 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $101 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $87 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $4 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $24 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5,605 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $476 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $23 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $576 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $3,492 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,224.03 · official $13,224.03 (match) · 1155 history records