Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D3 0xd34d…ff88 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-9%) realized −$58 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%41W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$27
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$22
other 38% −$38
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.6% -2.6% 75% 75% -3.3%
≤30d 15 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 67% -6.2%
≤90d 62 -13.0% -21.3% 53% 53% -12.4%
all 96 -24.0% -31.3% 43% 43% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 43% -17.4%
10% -37.8% 36% -25.3%
15% -43.8% 29% -32.6%
20% -49.3% 20% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses41 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage226d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $69 +$18 +26%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $56 +$13 +24%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $34 +$22 +66%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $24 +$10 +40%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $34 +$17 +50%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $24 +$10 +42%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $18 +$6 +32%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $7 −$7 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -99%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $9 +$4 +46%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $6 +$1 +20%
Abidjan 2: Aziz Dougaz vs Millen Hurrion Apr 28 $1 $0 +13%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $4 +$1 +32%
CA Huracán vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $2 −$2 -99%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1 +$1 +128%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1 $0 +49%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Donna Vekic vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 10 $1 +$1 +100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $1 $0 +35%
Will Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $1 +$1 +114%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $37 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $88 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $69 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $56 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $56 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $34 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $34 43h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 70¢ $24 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $18 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 59¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 12d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 13d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $7 45d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $5 49d
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $5 52d
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 52d
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $4 52d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 53d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.74 · official $33.74 (match) · 150 history records