Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd34c…10b4
crypto · 279 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,357 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,340 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,647
Realized−$4,340
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses76 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions23
Markets (closed)256 / 279
History coverage19d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 23 History 256 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$693
7 days+$482
14 days−$2,953
30 days−$4,340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 44¢ $250 $244 −$6 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $240 $227 −$13 (-5%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 50¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+63%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $92 +$101 +111%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $232 +$101 +44%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $386 +$497 +129%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $355 −$350 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $152 +$108 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $224 +$325 +145%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $305 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $304 −$304 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $152 +$164 +108%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $121 +$82 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $152 +$90 +59%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $223 +$243 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $101 +$95 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +181%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $41 +$18 +45%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $152 +$128 +84%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $20 +$18 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 05 $203 −$200 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $233 −$152 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $247 −$234 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 01 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 01 $1,410 +$352 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $1,073 −$380 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 01 $2,201 −$1,275 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 01 $1,507 +$101 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $736 −$85 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 01 $270 −$257 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 01 $650 −$335 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $185 −$176 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 01 $446 −$440 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 01 $27 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 01 $344 +$230 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $211 +$128 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 31 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 31 $232 −$53 -23%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 31 $101 +$53 +52%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 31 $102 +$107 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 31 $293 +$179 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$4,303
sports 27% +$142
other 2% −$311
world 0% +$120
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 23m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $112 23m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $162 26m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 27m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 28m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $15 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 55¢ $152 9h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $112 9h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $244 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $254 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $254 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 10h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 24h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 79¢ $10 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 33h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $355 33h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $71 33h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $232 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 33h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $51 35h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $132 35h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $153 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $204 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $152 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $254 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 42% +4.3%
≤30d 256 -25.6% -32.6% 30% 26% -26.0%
≤90d 256 -25.6% -32.6% 30% 26% -26.0%
all 256 -25.6% -32.6% 30% 26% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.6% 26% -26.0%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 24% -33.1%
15% -45.0% 20% -39.6%
20% -50.4% 17% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,647.06 · official $1,647.31 (match) · 1011 history records