Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd34b…0004 other 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$105,547 (+38%) realized +$109,922 · open −$4,375
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate42%167W / 227L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,170per market
Trades / day64.8pace
Fees−$321est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$60,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$5,157
world 28% +$7,018
sports 11% +$6,096
tech 5% +$136
politics 0% −$103
economics 0% +$13
crypto 0% +$3
finance 0% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 -32.5% -38.9% 34% 9% -57.3%
≤30d 345 -28.2% -35.1% 39% 12% -38.6%
≤90d 394 -27.2% -34.1% 42% 13% -30.0%
all 394 -27.2% -34.1% 42% 13% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.1% 13% -30.0%
10% -40.4% 10% -36.7%
15% ← realistic here -46.2% 7% -42.8%
20% -51.4% 6% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$653) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$590 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$60,072
Realized+$109,922
Unrealized−$4,375
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses167 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$321
Open positions79
Markets (closed)394 / 237
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$1,170
Trades / day64.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 79 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $10,816 $10,992 +$177 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 81¢ $9,292 $8,812 −$479 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 70¢ 44¢ $9,380 $5,899 −$3,481 (-37%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $5,584 $5,616 +$32 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 59¢ 88¢ $3,297 $4,922 +$1,625 (+49%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $4,352 $4,446 +$93 (+2%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,913 $1,953 +$40 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 62¢ $1,878 $1,852 −$25 (-1%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,585 $1,621 +$35 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 57¢ 38¢ $2,010 $1,312 −$697 (-35%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,175 $1,216 +$41 (+4%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,107 $1,192 +$85 (+8%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $917 $995 +$79 (+9%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $949 $951 +$2 (+0%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $581 $649 +$68 (+12%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $465 $474 +$8 (+2%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 74¢ 81¢ $404 $440 +$35 (+9%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $423 $435 +$12 (+3%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $388 $432 +$43 (+11%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $387 $397 +$10 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $377 $385 +$8 (+2%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $380 $384 +$4 (+1%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026? No 65¢ 80¢ $313 $383 +$70 (+22%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $308 $317 +$9 (+3%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $720 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $296 $295 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran strike on US military by January 31? Jun 17 $260 −$1,542 -594%
US bank failure by March 31? Jun 17 $31 +$33 +105%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during NewsNation interview? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Sinikka Monte win UMK 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? Jun 17 $1,608 −$1,485 -92%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" in Corpus Christi on Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 8+ times during Ta Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand P Jun 17 $1,363 −$1,363 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Jun 17 $434 −$434 -100%
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission? Jun 17 $1,047 −$1,026 -98%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Jun 17 $1,466 −$1,405 -96%
Will Trump say "China" or "Russia" 15+ times during Iowa speech? Jun 17 $36 −$31 -86%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 17 $1,506 −$1,506 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Jun 17 $1,043 −$1,043 -100%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Sing Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jun 17 $3,069 −$3,059 -100%
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025? Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday Jun 17 $482 −$482 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jun 17 $2,224 −$4,206 -189%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21? Jun 17 $265 −$244 -92%
Will Trump say "Toyota" during events with Japanese PM? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 17 $332 −$695 -210%
Will Rory McIlroy be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year Jun 17 $554 −$554 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jun 17 $772 −$571 -74%
Will Google say "Ironwood" during earnings call? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Dell computer" in January? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix Pole? Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Jun 17 $1,058 −$1,015 -96%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Jun 17 $56 −$13 -24%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? Jun 17 $22 −$9 -40%
Will Trump say "Thank You" 10+ times during signing time? Jun 17 $168 −$169 -100%
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jun 17 $380 −$379 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton Jun 17 $193 −$182 -94%
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Fed chair announcement? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 17 $748 −$748 -100%
Will Trump say "Colombia" this week? (January 11) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 17 $3,530 −$3,530 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Japanese PM? Jun 17 $1,186 −$1,212 -102%
Jack Catterall vs Ekow Essuman Nov 15, 2025 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Jun 17 $1,937 −$9,609 -496%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F Jun 17 $6,335 −$6,319 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Google say "Search Advertising" or "Search Ad" during earnings ca Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will A*Teens win Melodifestivalen 2026? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$350 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $98 1h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $510 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $260 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $147 6h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $270 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $147 6h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? BUY No 99¢ $181 6h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $236 6h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $720 in June? BUY No 99¢ $297 6h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 8h
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $5 14h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $9 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $8 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $1,260 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $12 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $98 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $512 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $154 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60,071.60 · official $60,072.69 (match) · 3500 history records