Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd34b…672c crypto 273 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$170 (-0%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%104W / 166L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day50.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$6,307
other 1% −$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 +0.4% -9.1% 41% 41% -15.8%
≤30d 270 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 38% -16.4%
≤90d 270 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 38% -16.4%
all 270 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 38% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 38% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 38% -24.4%
15% -29.4% 35% -31.7%
20% -36.4% 34% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$411 vs −$297 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses104 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)270 / 273
History coverage17d
Avg bet$365
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 270 Trades
no open positions (169 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $195 −$187 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$189 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$294 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $65 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $201 −$191 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $153 +$171 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $206 +$215 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $234 −$30 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $177 −$70 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $96 −$92 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $253 −$240 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $222 +$1,091 +492%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $74 +$272 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $169 +$208 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $158 +$387 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $146 −$36 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $153 −$147 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $216 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $465 −$446 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$40 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$168 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$70 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $290 +$183 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$97 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $389 −$370 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $385 +$519 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $208 +$80 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $283 −$268 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $190 +$1,095 +577%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $111 −$106 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $421 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $630 −$600 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $790 +$407 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $312 +$235 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $798 −$760 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $629 −$300 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $314 +$97 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $1,201 −$1,146 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $623 +$534 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $695 −$660 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $630 −$600 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $637 −$610 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $195 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $67 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $67 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $66 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $395 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $101 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $32 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $155 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $324 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $153 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $421 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $206 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $32 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $372 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $203 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $74 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $276 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $96 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 46¢ $306 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $74 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $73 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,313 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $74 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $74 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $73 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 845 history records