Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd34a…78c7 crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,571 (-27%) realized −$25,559 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%22W / 65L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,058per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$836est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,505
7 days−$27,702
14 days−$26,600
30 days−$26,600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$15,899
sports 34% −$9,313
other 16% −$1,401
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -28.6% -35.4% 24% 20% -39.2%
≤30d 87 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 22% -36.9%
≤90d 87 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 22% -36.9%
all 87 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 22% -36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 22% -36.9%
10% -39.6% 20% -43.0%
15% ← realistic here -45.5% 20% -48.5%
20% -50.8% 17% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$1,300) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,275 vs −$841 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$788
Realized−$25,559
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses22 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$836
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 91
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,058
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 32¢ 32¢ $800 $788 −$12 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 19 $288 −$280 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $308 −$300 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,327 +$593 +45%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $134 −$130 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,020 +$1,409 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $790 −$745 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $2,076 −$2,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $954 −$900 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $948 +$2,849 +300%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,942 −$2,900 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $514 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $495 −$488 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $522 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2,095 −$2,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1,571 −$638 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1,210 −$1,150 -95%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $971 −$950 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $666 −$650 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $508 +$850 +167%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $967 +$1,349 +140%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1,532 −$1,500 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $509 +$4,986 +980%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $951 −$951 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $939 −$900 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $608 +$1,315 +216%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,030 −$1,000 -49%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $513 −$88 -17%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $512 −$28 -6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $552 −$41 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $902 +$23 +3%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,005 −$983 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $315 −$306 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $334 −$325 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $857 −$838 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $605 −$580 -96%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $523 −$510 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,328 −$1,300 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,634 −$1,600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $600 −$569 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $544 +$59 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,383 −$131 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $687 −$647 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2,028 −$2,028 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $816 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $288 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $308 17h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 48¢ $1,920 17h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $1,327 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $134 19h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $2,429 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $287 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $199 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $158 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $144 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $404 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $90 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $369 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $458 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $404 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $351 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $132 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $199 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $164 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $282 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $177 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $348 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $318 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $282 41h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 34¢ $1,020 41h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $1,023 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,017 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $2,942 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.50 · official $787.50 (match) · 224 history records