Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd343…436a sports 820 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-8%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%452W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$83
other 26% −$19
crypto 13% −$24
world 1% −$5
politics 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -55.6% -59.8% 25% 21% -61.8%
≤30d 56 -41.0% -46.6% 36% 34% -53.4%
≤90d 721 -2.4% -11.7% 55% 55% -17.7%
all 808 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 53% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 53% -17.8%
10% -20.5% 49% -25.7%
15% -28.2% 45% -32.8%
20% -35.2% 36% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses452 / 356
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions12
Markets (closed)808 / 820
History coverage154d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 51¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$2 +238%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $2 +$1 +27%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $2 $0 +11%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $1 $0 -7%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $2 +$1 +67%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 19 $3 +$2 +52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 19 $2 +$1 +48%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $2 +$1 +50%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 19 $2 +$1 +67%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $2 +$1 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 19 $5 −$5 -93%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5) May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $2 +$1 +55%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 18 $3 +$2 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $2 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $2 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $2 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $2 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $2 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $2 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $2 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $1 30h
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 21d
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 21d
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 21d
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) BUY AC Milan 50¢ $1 21d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $2 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.65 · official $23.65 (match) · 1679 history records