Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd343…4685 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$4
politics 22% −$2
tech 13% −$1
culture 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +13.7% +2.9% 100% 50% +3.6%
≤90d 4 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 25% -3.3%
all 40 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage405d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 71¢ 70¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 10 $17 +$5 +27%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 13-19? Apr 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 06 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 06 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 27 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 5-11? Feb 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 27 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on January 30? Feb 27 $43 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on December 19? Dec 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 December 15-21? Dec 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025 Dec 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16? Dec 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $116K August 25–31? Oct 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $180 September 15-21? Oct 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k August 11–17? Sep 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Aug 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jul 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jul 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election May 29 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 29 $340 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30? May 29 $345 $0 -0%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $323 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? May 23 $340 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 May 16 $345 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $364 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $28 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 78¢ $17 19d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $16 71d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 90d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $37 100d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $10 100d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $27 100d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL Yes 0¢ $1 111d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $913 111d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 111d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $460 111d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $460 111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $3 111d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $920 111d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $928 111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $9 111d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $929 118d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $930 118d
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $899 118d
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $900 118d
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on January 30? BUY No 100¢ $43 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $4 167d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $36 167d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $5 167d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $36 167d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on December 19? BUY No 100¢ $2 189d
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025 SELL No 100¢ $35 189d
Will Solana dip to $60 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $11 189d
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025 BUY No 100¢ $35 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.07 · official $27.07 (match) · 101 history records