Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd33c…702c other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,398 (-14%) realized −$1,810 · open −$588
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$532per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$736
7 days+$1,461
14 days+$1,461
30 days+$1,461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$2,646
sports 37% +$416
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +40.0% +26.7% 73% 73% +30.1%
≤30d 11 +40.0% +26.7% 73% 73% +30.1%
≤90d 18 +47.6% +33.5% 61% 61% -16.2%
all 30 +26.7% +14.6% 60% 60% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 60% -19.1%
10% +3.7% 50% -26.9%
15% -6.4% 47% -33.9%
20% -15.5% 30% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$818) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late +76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$239 vs −$495 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,810
Unrealized−$588
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage175d
Avg bet$532
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 73¢ 0¢ $589 $0 −$588 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $304 +$289 +95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $502 +$378 +75%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $204 −$200 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Por Jun 28 $300 +$269 +90%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Se Jun 27 $300 +$331 +110%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1. Jun 26 $300 +$200 +67%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic Jun 25 $305 −$98 -32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $371 +$169 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $204 +$165 +81%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $350 −$143 -41%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $1,105 +$685 +62%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $105 +$131 +125%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $122 +$749 +612%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $819 −$764 -93%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,596 −$1,427 -89%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Apr 27 $1,261 −$1,261 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Apr 27 $206 −$206 -100%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 20 $486 −$126 -26%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 20 $1,002 −$670 -67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 09 $449 +$221 +49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $301 +$148 +49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 04 $103 +$31 +30%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 04 $818 −$488 -60%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 03 $300 +$122 +41%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $297 +$48 +16%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $550 −$279 -51%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $446 −$277 -62%
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1,133 +$128 +11%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 10 $999 +$134 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 73¢ $594 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $594 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 80¢ $302 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $331 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1 BUY 63¢ $884 4h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $502 31h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Por BUY 52¢ $300 46h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Por BUY 50¢ $300 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Se BUY 47¢ $300 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1. BUY 59¢ $300 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic SELL 29¢ $207 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic BUY 42¢ $305 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $371 6d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $369 6d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL 36¢ $207 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 59¢ $350 6d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 60¢ $401 60d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 60¢ $704 60d
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 85¢ $235 60d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 84¢ $871 60d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 11¢ $122 60d
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 36¢ $105 60d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 6¢ $55 60d
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 10¢ $169 60d
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 87¢ $70 62d
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 87¢ $615 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $874.18 · 95 history records