Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D3 0xd33c…2e8a other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$1 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$11
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +87.6% +69.8% 50% 50% +71.6%
≤90d 2 +87.6% +69.8% 50% 50% +71.6%
all 4 +23.6% +11.8% 50% 50% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 50% -23.4%
10% +1.1% 25% -30.7%
15% -8.7% 25% -37.4%
20% -17.6% 25% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage186d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $607 $604 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $18 +$3 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $606 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 10d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10d
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 179d
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 184d
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $18 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.62 · official $603.62 (match) · 8 history records