Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd33c…c80f crypto 1078 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-3%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%568W / 504L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$128
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1071 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 51% -12.8%
all 1072 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 51% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 51% -12.8%
10% -20.9% 46% -21.2%
15% -28.5% 44% -28.8%
20% -35.5% 40% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses568 / 504
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1072 / 1078
History coverage170d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1072 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 28 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 28 $4 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 28 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 24 $4 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 24 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 24 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 23 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 23 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.18 · official $6.18 (match) · 2571 history records