Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd335…f0de politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$328 (+9%) realized +$328 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$331
14 days+$379
30 days+$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% +$163
crypto 16% −$37
other 13% +$185
world 9% −$284
tech 9% +$86
sports 6% +$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +37.6% +24.5% 83% 83% +38.3%
≤30d 8 +44.0% +30.2% 88% 88% +34.6%
≤90d 8 +44.0% +30.2% 88% 88% +34.6%
all 18 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 61% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 61% -1.4%
10% -10.1% 50% -10.9%
15% -18.8% 39% -19.5%
20% -26.7% 22% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$108 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage590d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$66 +43%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $86 +$84 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$49 +32%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $66 +$72 +109%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $161 +$70 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $51 +$47 +93%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 02 $296 +$96 +32%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 30 $327 −$284 -87%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Feb 24 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Feb 24 $35 −$15 -43%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Dec 20 $111 −$58 -52%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Dec 05 $151 −$76 -50%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $350 +$168 +48%
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet? Nov 15 $619 +$90 +14%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Nov 11 $51 +$8 +15%
House control after 2024 election? Nov 08 $465 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $258 +$207 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $86 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 86¢ $201 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $66 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 3d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $161 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $51 13d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $296 27d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL Yes $43 444d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 478d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? SELL Yes $20 478d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? BUY Yes $35 533d
Will there be a US Government shutdown? SELL Yes 18¢ $53 543d
Will there be a US Government shutdown? BUY Yes 39¢ $78 543d
Will there be a US Government shutdown? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 543d
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? SELL Yes 27¢ $76 559d
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 559d
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 559d
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? BUY Yes 54¢ $140 559d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 40¢ $55 560d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 27¢ $66 562d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 27¢ $4 562d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 27¢ $2 562d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 27¢ $0 562d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 27¢ $19 562d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY No 77¢ $322 565d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY No 28¢ $28 571d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY Yes 45¢ $96 578d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records