Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd333…53f9
weather · 452 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,362 -46%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,362 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,362
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses140 / 312
Open positions0
Markets (closed)452 / 452
History coverage326d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 452 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 1? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 4? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 4? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29? May 29 $0 +$2 +446%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 11? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 11? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 7? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 6? May 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 6? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8? May 09 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? May 08 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 6? May 06 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 5? May 06 $26 −$24 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 5? May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 6? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5? May 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 5? May 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $6 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 5? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 4? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5? May 05 $21 +$28 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 4? May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 4? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 4? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 4? May 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 4? May 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5? May 05 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 4? May 04 $7 +$24 +317%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 4? May 04 $8 −$6 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $2 +$5 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 3? May 04 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 3? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on May 3? May 03 $4 +$5 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 2? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 2? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 3? May 03 $19 +$24 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 2? May 02 $41 −$29 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 2? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 1? May 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 1? May 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 2? May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% −$2,332
crypto 2% −$29
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 4? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 12d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 1? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 12d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 33d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 33d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? BUY No 7¢ $0 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? BUY No 7¢ $1 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8? SELL No 100¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8? BUY No 60¢ $3 36d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? BUY No 70¢ $1 37d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 37d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 37d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 37d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 37d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 37d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 37d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 37d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 37d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 38d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.9% -67.3% 25% 25% -46.8%
≤30d 11 -24.6% -31.8% 27% 27% -40.2%
≤90d 244 +4.1% -5.8% 30% 28% -14.4%
all 452 -22.2% -29.7% 31% 26% -52.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 26% -52.1%
10% -36.4% 21% -56.7%
15% -42.5% 18% -60.9%
20% -48.2% 15% -64.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2861 history records