Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:43:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd333…09dc weather 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$99 (-1%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%69W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$59
other 27% −$2
economics 12% −$3
weather 8% +$9
world 5% +$2
politics 1% −$46
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 56 -0.6% -10.0% 98% 0% -12.3%
all 77 -0.7% -10.2% 90% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -10.5%
10% -18.8% 3% -19.1%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses69 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage552d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 23 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on May 12? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 13? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 13? May 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on May 13? May 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on April 21? May 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on April 21? May 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 21? May 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C or higher on April 2 May 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20? Apr 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 20? Apr 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on April 20? Apr 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on April 20? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri Apr 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on April Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on Apri Apr 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 16? Apr 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 16? Apr 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 16? Apr 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C or below on April 17? Apr 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 17? Apr 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 17? Apr 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 16? Apr 20 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C or below on April 4? Apr 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 4? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 4? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 4? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 4? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 4? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on April 4? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 4? Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on Apri Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 4? Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on April 4? Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or below on April 4 Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on April 6? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on April 4? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on April 4? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C or below on April 4? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C or below on April 4? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 6? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ap Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on April 4? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on April 4? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or below on April 4? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 02 $105 −$46 -44%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 31d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $21 41d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $33 41d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $21 41d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $33 41d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 100¢ $31 62d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $22 62d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $28 62d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $27 62d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $33 63d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $23 63d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $29 63d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $23 63d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri BUY No 100¢ $15 67d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on Apri BUY No 100¢ $19 67d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on April BUY No 100¢ $18 67d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $22 67d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $23 67d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $22 67d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 16? BUY No 97¢ $23 67d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $23 67d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $19 67d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C or below on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $22 67d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C or below on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 81d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 81d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C or below on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 81d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $9 81d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 81d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on April 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.57 · official $58.57 (match) · 163 history records