Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd333…0bb5 crypto 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,901 (+7%) realized +$1,901 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate68%79W / 37L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,440
other 3% +$134
sports 1% +$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +4.4% -5.5% 68% 57% -3.5%
≤30d 116 +4.4% -5.5% 68% 57% -3.5%
≤90d 116 +4.4% -5.5% 68% 57% -3.5%
all 116 +4.4% -5.5% 68% 57% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 57% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 46% -12.8%
15% -22.8% 35% -21.2%
20% -30.4% 22% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$113 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,901
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses79 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage5d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,004 +$50 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1,026 +$60 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $811 +$171 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $503 +$40 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $501 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $704 +$52 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $702 +$20 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $570 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $509 +$158 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $405 +$91 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$280 +528%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$60 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$46 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $410 −$140 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$59 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1,004 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1,085 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $973 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $982 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $811 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $544 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $503 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $505 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $704 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $721 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $702 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $570 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $509 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $405 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $36 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $53 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $41 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $60 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 293 history records