Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd331…733c
sports · 687 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$54,281 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$55,897 · open +$1,713
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$66,447
Realized−$55,897
Unrealized+$1,713
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses250 / 475
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$3,051
Open positions139
Markets (closed)725 / 687
History coverage14d
Avg bet$590
Trades / day219.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 139 History 725 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,677
7 days−$36,093
14 days−$55,892
30 days−$55,897
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 17¢ 82¢ $2,764 $13,258 +$10,493 (+380%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $9,776 $9,301 −$474 (-5%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $6,101 $6,053 −$48 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $4,478 $4,392 −$86 (-2%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 54¢ 57¢ $3,369 $3,601 +$232 (+7%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 75¢ 52¢ $3,025 $2,111 −$914 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1,775 $1,867 +$92 (+5%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 54¢ 57¢ $1,676 $1,780 +$104 (+6%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $1,494 $1,736 +$242 (+16%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $1,748 $1,722 −$26 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1,285 $1,275 −$10 (-1%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 76¢ 82¢ $1,048 $1,126 +$78 (+7%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 59¢ 80¢ $723 $983 +$259 (+36%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $801 $879 +$77 (+10%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 60¢ $1,031 $870 −$161 (-16%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $1,060 $849 −$211 (-20%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 65¢ 61¢ $678 $640 −$38 (-6%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $928 $594 −$334 (-36%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ 57¢ $583 $561 −$23 (-4%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $637 $508 −$128 (-20%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 52¢ 52¢ $481 $482 +$1 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $477 $476 −$1 (-0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $464 $454 −$10 (-2%)
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 No 77¢ 82¢ $403 $431 +$28 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $427 $418 −$9 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $639 −$639 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 13 $1,311 −$1,311 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 13 $72 −$192 -267%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $188 −$188 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs InControl (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champi Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 13 $223 −$223 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$25,476
other 39% −$4,272
politics 2% +$1,753
economics 1% +$242
crypto 0% −$678
world 0% +$112
tech 0% −$914
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 0m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $78 1m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 6m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 85¢ $25 10m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $6,084 12m
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 21m
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $579 22m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4,576 25m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $46 25m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $210 27m
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 31m
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 32m
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 32m
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 32m
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 32m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $516 35m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 85¢ $132 46m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 51m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 57m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 58m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 59m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $184 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $159 1h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 84¢ $78 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY No 89¢ $95 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY No 95¢ $64 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 424 -45.2% -50.4% 28% 22% -27.4%
≤30d 725 -29.1% -35.8% 34% 28% -23.2%
≤90d 725 -29.1% -35.8% 34% 28% -23.2%
all 725 -29.1% -35.8% 34% 28% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover219.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 28% -23.2%
10% -42.0% 22% -30.5%
15% ← realistic here -47.6% 21% -37.2%
20% -52.7% 16% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,446.70 · official $66,448.38 (match) · 3500 history records