Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D3 0xd331…d738 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,627 (+124%) realized −$183 · open +$1,810
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,741now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -13.1% -21.3% 25% 25% -61.9%
≤30d 4 -13.1% -21.3% 25% 25% -61.9%
≤90d 4 -13.1% -21.3% 25% 25% -61.9%
all 4 -13.1% -21.3% 25% 25% -61.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 25% -61.9%
10% -28.9% 25% -65.5%
15% -35.7% 25% -68.9%
20% -42.0% 25% -71.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$92 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,741
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$1,810
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 12¢ 50¢ $234 $1,013 +$779 (+333%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 10¢ 50¢ $192 $947 +$754 (+392%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 29¢ 50¢ $300 $517 +$217 (+72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 31¢ 50¢ $100 $163 +$63 (+63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 15¢ 14¢ $105 $102 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $109 −$100 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $127 −$117 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$95 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,740.89 · official $2,740.89 (match) · 18 history records