Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd331…afda sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,036 (-7%) realized −$1,035 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%61W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$522
14 days−$567
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$668
other 5% −$430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -60.0% -63.8% 29% 29% -63.7%
≤30d 27 -8.0% -16.8% 44% 44% -19.1%
≤90d 80 +1.8% -7.9% 40% 40% -13.9%
all 136 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 45% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 45% -16.2%
10% -19.1% 44% -24.2%
15% -26.9% 43% -31.5%
20% -34.0% 35% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$101 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$1,035
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses61 / 75
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage168d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 59¢ 58¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $159 −$158 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$49 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $139 −$138 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $136 +$74 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $89 −$88 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $107 +$93 +86%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $111 −$110 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 −$64 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $81 +$119 +146%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $93 −$92 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $82 −$81 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $71 +$129 +180%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $89 −$88 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $75 +$125 +165%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $69 −$68 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $79 +$121 +152%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 31 $85 −$84 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 31 $95 +$105 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $87 +$113 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $119 +$81 +67%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 29 $93 +$107 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $77 −$76 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $89 −$88 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $113 +$87 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $113 −$112 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $95 +$105 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $65 −$64 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 +$133 +197%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $75 +$125 +165%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $125 −$124 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $75 +$125 +165%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $75 −$74 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $167 −$164 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $59 −$58 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $85 −$84 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 04 $59 −$58 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $59 −$58 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $121 +$79 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $119 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $159 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $139 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $69 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $151 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 6d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $136 8d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $89 9d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $107 10d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $111 11d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $69 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $65 13d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $81 13d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE 46¢ $93 15d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $82 16d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Global Esports 44¢ $89 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $71 19d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY San Diego Padres 34¢ $69 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $75 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $79 23d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Minnesota Twins 42¢ $85 24d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 47¢ $95 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $87 25d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $93 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $119 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $77 28d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $89 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $113 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.00 · official $117.00 (match) · 213 history records