Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd330…f233 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$40 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$8
crypto 38% −$34
other 8% −$7
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -3.0% -12.2% 49% 42% -11.9%
≤30d 74 -3.0% -12.2% 49% 42% -11.9%
≤90d 74 -3.0% -12.2% 49% 42% -11.9%
all 74 -3.0% -12.2% 49% 42% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 42% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 36% -20.4%
15% -28.3% 30% -28.1%
20% -35.3% 20% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 38
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay to win the second half? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $165 $157 −$8 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$5 +26%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $159 −$18 -11%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $54 −$54 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $132 +$102 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$25 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$36 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$12 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$84 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $78 +$81 +104%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $242 −$31 -13%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $118 −$116 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $54 −$52 -96%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $81 −$54 -67%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $221 +$79 +36%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $23 +$12 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $167 48m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 46¢ $141 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $159 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $51 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $4 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $234 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $132 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $29 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $14 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $36 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.60 · official $156.60 (match) · 186 history records