Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd330…8e01 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$185 (-29%) realized −$186 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate72%26W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$198
sports 8% +$5
other 2% $0
tech 2% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +29.8% +17.4% 90% 80% +18.6%
≤30d 14 +26.1% +14.1% 93% 79% +14.6%
≤90d 36 -1.7% -11.1% 72% 61% -37.4%
all 36 -1.7% -11.1% 72% 61% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 61% -37.4%
10% -19.6% 42% -43.4%
15% -27.4% 22% -48.9%
20% -34.5% 17% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8.3995792038531% → late 4.960076375796895% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$27 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses26 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)36 / 53
History coverage89d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Yes 39¢ 31¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Travis Scott attend UFC Freedom 250? Yes 49¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Will Tom Brady attend UFC Freedom 250? Yes 88¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 87¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$3 +170%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Applied Materials (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik Jun 07 $3 +$1 +17%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 08 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 06 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 06 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 06 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 18 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 18 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 18 $25 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 18 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 18 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 18 $110 −$77 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 18 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 18 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $1 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 65¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 78¢ $2 3h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 71¢ $2 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 78¢ $2 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 14¢ $1 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 70¢ $3 3h
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.60 · official $19.64 (match) · 96 history records