Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd32f…1496 sports 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (453 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$27,129 (+5%) realized +$29,160 · open −$2,031
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate70%96W / 42L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$4,064per market
Trades / day452.6pace
Fees−$6,921est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12,635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$22,523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (453 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +21.5% +9.9% 70% 54% -5.6%
≤30d 138 +21.5% +9.9% 70% 54% -5.6%
≤90d 138 +21.5% +9.9% 70% 54% -5.6%
all 138 +21.5% +9.9% 70% 54% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover452.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.9% 54% -5.6%
10% -0.6% 39% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -10.2% 22% -22.9%
20% -19.0% 12% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$4,794) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$803 vs −$1,251 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$12,635
Realized+$29,160
Unrealized−$2,031
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses96 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$6,921
Open positions5
Markets (closed)138 / 143
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4,064
Trades / day452.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner 9z 52¢ 100¢ $3,151 $6,048 +$2,897 (+92%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner 9z 60¢ 60¢ $2,158 $2,192 +$35 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 37¢ 40¢ $1,863 $2,011 +$148 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 72¢ 78¢ $1,227 $1,321 +$94 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 40¢ 22¢ $824 $459 −$364 (-44%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 40¢ 42¢ $401 $426 +$25 (+6%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 37¢ 38¢ $167 $174 +$7 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 25¢ 0¢ $1,850 $4 −$1,846 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $33,456 −$3,613 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $465 −$465 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $490 −$490 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $1,666 −$165 -10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $655 −$435 -66%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,596 +$160 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $672 −$578 -86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,893 −$1,483 -38%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,641 −$2,387 -90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,758 −$2,758 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $9,531 +$398 +4%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $4,528 +$1,752 +39%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7,217 +$1,866 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,153 +$942 +82%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $6,764 +$2,087 +31%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,760 +$2,075 +75%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,460 −$413 -28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,797 +$310 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,082 +$314 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,838 −$587 -32%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1,800 +$264 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,289 +$267 +8%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,593 +$1,044 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8,322 +$2,512 +30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18,573 +$1,690 +9%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $589 +$258 +44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8,008 +$758 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4,794 +$867 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $2,016 −$748 -37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10,722 +$116 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $12,093 −$3,761 -31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $13,912 −$3,041 -22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7,265 +$264 +4%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $7,977 −$1,523 -19%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,956 −$1,788 -60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11,279 −$4,236 -38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $12,324 −$5,622 -46%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,120 −$4,120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $29,219 +$8,477 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8,697 +$2,492 +29%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,766 +$687 +39%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,336 +$557 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3,873 +$630 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $807 +$414 +51%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,433 +$865 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9,532 +$2,488 +26%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,518 +$8 +0%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $271 +$91 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4,661 +$75 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $0 2m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $10 2m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $16 2m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $1 2m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $77 2m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 22¢ $229 5m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 75¢ $174 6m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $9 8m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $816 8m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $9 11m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $113 11m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $148 11m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $4 12m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $2 12m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $1 12m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $3 12m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 37¢ $167 14m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $59 17m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 8¢ $43 29m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $54 31m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 59¢ $266 32m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $1,090 41m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $792 41m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $732 41m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 46¢ $690 41m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 87¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $165 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 16¢ $485 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 78¢ $1,179 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 51¢ $772 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,634.79 · official $12,634.79 (match) · 3222 history records