Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd32c…a4c2
politics · 161 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$72,283 -85%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45,007 · open −$23,223
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$469
Realized−$45,007
Unrealized−$23,223
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions90
Markets (closed)124 / 161
History coverage7d
Avg bet$529
Trades / day422.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 90 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23,338
7 days−$45,007
14 days−$45,007
30 days−$45,007
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $771 $19 −$753 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $549 $13 −$536 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $501 $12 −$489 (-98%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $488 $12 −$476 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $488 $12 −$476 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $488 $12 −$476 (-98%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $650 $9 −$641 (-99%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $650 $9 −$641 (-99%)
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $650 $9 −$641 (-99%)
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $650 $9 −$641 (-99%)
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $650 $9 −$641 (-99%)
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $650 $9 −$641 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$82 -5246%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$30 -1893%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$82 -5246%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $42 −$110 -259%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$419 -747%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$20 -1253%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$59 -3797%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$82 -5246%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$244 -434%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$82 -5246%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$82 -5246%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$82 -5246%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$116 -207%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$82 -5246%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $19 −$21 -110%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$61 -3897%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$420 -749%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 33% −$24,741
other 26% −$24,294
tech 23% −$451
economics 11% −$577
world 3% −$234
sports 2% −$2,305
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 98¢ $10 36m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 2¢ $0 36m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 2h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $49 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 49¢ $24 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $43 2h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $37 2h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $43 2h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $37 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $48 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 51¢ $26 2h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.7%
≤30d 124 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.7%
≤90d 124 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.7%
all 124 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover422.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -99.3% 0% -99.7%
10% ← realistic here -99.3% 0% -99.7%
15% -99.4% 0% -99.8%
20% -99.5% 0% -99.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.25 · official $469.25 (match) · 3500 history records