Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd32b…b040 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$6
other 28% +$10
politics 18% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 56% -12.7%
≤30d 18 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 56% -12.7%
≤90d 18 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 56% -12.7%
all 18 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 56% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 56% -12.7%
10% -21.0% 44% -21.0%
15% -28.6% 28% -28.7%
20% -35.6% 17% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+19%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 38¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-37%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 +$6 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 +$3 +12%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $8 +$4 +45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 +$4 +54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +160%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $11 −$9 -80%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $14 −$12 -86%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $6 13m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 49m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $26 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $2 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $4 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 62¢ $7 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $26 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $6 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $6 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 69¢ $4 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 69¢ $3 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 67¢ $0 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 66¢ $9 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $7 36h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.55 · official $14.00 · 50 history records