Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5

score

D3 0xd325…fd1b other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3,661 (+31%) realized +$4,055 · open −$394

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%9W / 7L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$660per market

Trades / day9.4pace

Fees−$66est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$906now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+15.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+27.2%	+15.1%	56%	56%	+23.7%
≤30d	16	+27.2%	+15.1%	56%	56%	+23.7%
≤90d	16	+27.2%	+15.1%	56%	56%	+23.7%
all	16	+27.2%	+15.1%	56%	56%	+23.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.4 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+15.1%	56%	+23.7%
10% ← realistic here	+4.1%	50%	+11.9%
15%	-6.0%	44%	+1.1%
20%	-15.2%	38%	-8.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +75% → late -21% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$799 vs −$483 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$906

Realized+$4,055

Unrealized−$394

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses9 / 7

Est. fees paid−$66

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage4d

Avg bet$660

Trades / day9.4

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Algeria	64¢	52¢	$800	$656	−$144 (-18%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	No	37¢	18¢	$500	$250	−$250 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$478	+$321	+67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$107	−$105	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$61	−$60	-98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$573	+$234	+41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$368	+$831	+226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$995	−$995	-100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 14	$204	−$204	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$225	−$225	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$811	−$811	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$984	−$984	-100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5)	Jun 14	$538	+$1,162	+216%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$377	+$76	+20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$3,185	+$1,764	+55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$354	+$240	+68%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$523	+$151	+29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$584	+$2,413	+413%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	64¢	$303	58m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	36¢	$191	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	37¢	$509	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	64¢	$505	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	37¢	$204	1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	SELL Norway	100¢	$589	2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	SELL Norway	100¢	$211	2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	59¢	$478	4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	21¢	$107	25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	17¢	$61	32h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	SELL Cabo Verde	90¢	$808	33h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	63¢	$573	34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,199	46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$368	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	49¢	$995	2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5)	BUY Germany	31¢	$538	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	22¢	$225	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	46¢	$453	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	99¢	$4,949	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$3,185	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	37¢	$377	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	99¢	$594	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	23¢	$674	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$90	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$7	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$24	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$67	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$6	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$15	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$15	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $906.25 · official $906.25 (match) · 47 history records