Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd325…a4c4 crypto 538 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,790 (-2%) realized −$5,781 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%335W / 209L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$587per market
Trades / day93.9pace
Fees−$450est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$12,789
sports 17% −$2,268
other 0% +$560
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -17.6% -25.4% 57% 54% -19.5%
≤30d 421 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 57% -12.9%
≤90d 544 -7.3% -16.1% 62% 57% -12.7%
all 544 -7.3% -16.1% 62% 57% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 57% -12.7%
10% -24.2% 43% -21.1%
15% ← realistic here -31.5% 31% -28.7%
20% -38.2% 19% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$767) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$422 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$5,781
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses335 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$450
Open positions1
Markets (closed)544 / 538
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$587
Trades / day93.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 65¢ 54¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $412 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $404 +$56 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $274 +$106 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $515 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $561 −$349 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $515 +$414 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $412 +$298 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $361 −$322 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $744 −$560 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $920 +$351 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $513 +$246 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $254 +$71 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $507 −$470 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $764 −$750 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $511 +$205 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,171 +$560 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $876 −$850 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1,274 −$1,250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,022 +$447 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1,264 +$204 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $774 −$750 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,285 +$719 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,526 −$250 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,129 +$682 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $713 +$219 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $457 +$254 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $403 +$46 +12%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2,512 −$2,198 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,274 +$359 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $717 +$388 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1,206 −$9 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,112 +$170 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,025 +$549 +54%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $1,505 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,014 +$247 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,014 +$202 +20%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $1,204 −$1,199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $259 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $710 +$142 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $206 +$130 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $668 +$440 +66%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $705 −$700 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $258 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $461 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $253 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $255 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $19 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $258 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $258 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $212 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $252 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $929 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $255 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $260 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $711 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $258 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $27 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $258 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $166 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $255 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.15 · official $41.15 (match) · 3500 history records