Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D3 0xd320…f000 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +229% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +153% what you keep after slip
Net edge+153%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day70.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+197.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +228.7% +197.4% 44% 44% -22.0%
≤30d 32 +228.7% +197.4% 44% 44% -22.0%
≤90d 32 +228.7% +197.4% 44% 44% -22.0%
all 32 +228.7% +197.4% 44% 44% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +197.4% 44% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here +169.0% 44% -29.5%
15% +143.0% 44% -36.3%
20% +119.2% 44% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +229% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +373% → late +85% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$21 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$45 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$65 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$10 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$36 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$29 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$23 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$51 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$52 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$27 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $117 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.47 · official $0.00 · 88 history records