Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd31d…bd0c other 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days+$8
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$14
other 24% +$8
finance 5% −$17
politics 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$2
weather 1% −$1
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.7% -11.9% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 30 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 32 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 87 -1.8% -11.1% 38% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 1% -9.4%
10% -19.6% 1% -18.1%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage474d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $158 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $143 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $144 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $293 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $59 −$3 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $305 −$4 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $149 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $166 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $149 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $168 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $22 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $786 +$18 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $201 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $142 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $1,061 +$5 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $151 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $266 −$17 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $177 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $180 −$3 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $180 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $77 +$4 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $41 +$2 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $187 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $1,207 +$5 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $69 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $150 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 09 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 20 $14 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 16 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 14 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $15 −$1 -7%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? May 08 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $38 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $158 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $158 6h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $143 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $140 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $144 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $144 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $144 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $144 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $55 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $152 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $154 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $149 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $149 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $63 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $86 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $149 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $37 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.00 (match) · 322 history records