Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D3 0xd31d…3d13 sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$199 (+1%) realized +$231 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%34W / 39L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$270est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,008now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$786
14 days−$4,375
30 days−$535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$366
other 35% −$778
tech 5% +$86
crypto 3% +$494
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +202.7% +173.9% 67% 67% +143.0%
≤30d 72 +13.7% +2.9% 46% 42% -11.5%
≤90d 73 +13.5% +2.7% 47% 41% -11.4%
all 73 +13.5% +2.7% 47% 41% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 41% -11.4%
10% -7.1% 38% -19.9%
15% -16.1% 34% -27.6%
20% -24.3% 30% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$236 vs −$220 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,008
Realized+$231
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses34 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$270
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage37d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 80¢ $1,040 $1,008 −$32 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $303 +$180 +59%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $103 +$666 +649%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $85 −$83 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $92 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $91 +$108 +118%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,426 −$2,400 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $304 −$218 -72%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,021 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $255 −$100 -39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $506 −$69 -14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,723 −$1,185 -69%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $504 −$21 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$251 +245%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $710 +$494 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $224 +$87 +39%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$168 +165%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $203 −$170 -84%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $304 +$193 +64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $204 +$354 +173%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $505 +$275 +54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$115 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $51 −$5 -10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $267 −$50 -19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $305 +$314 +103%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $102 −$34 -33%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $51 +$1 +3%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 14 $253 +$2 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $205 +$10 +5%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 +$381 +372%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $224 −$20 -9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,612 +$527 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $762 −$371 -49%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $203 −$80 -39%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$12 -23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$32 -15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $41 +$15 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $310 −$105 -34%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $204 −$9 -4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $404 +$116 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$213 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1,046 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Algeria BUY 11¢ $100 26h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $483 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $303 2d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 100¢ $768 2d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $61 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $85 7d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 7d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 9d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 9d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 9d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 13d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,426 13d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 13d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $86 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $204 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $305 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $102 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 71¢ $113 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $51 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 50¢ $98 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 38¢ $102 13d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $437 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $504 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $508 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,008.29 · official $1,008.29 (match) · 213 history records