Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D3 0xd31d…6748 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$27 (+11%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$3
tech 45% +$6
sports 8% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 2 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤90d 3 +21.8% +10.2% 100% 33% -1.8%
all 3 +21.8% +10.2% 100% 33% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 33% -1.8%
10% -0.4% 33% -11.2%
15% -10.0% 33% -19.8%
20% -18.8% 33% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage60d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $111 +$3 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $106 +$6 +6%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 22 $20 +$11 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $114 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $111 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $112 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $106 12d
Canadiens vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 63¢ $20 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records