Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd31d…37f4 crypto 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-11%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%60W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$24
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -8.2% -16.9% 44% 44% -18.1%
≤30d 126 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 48% -21.1%
≤90d 126 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 48% -21.1%
all 126 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 48% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 48% -21.1%
10% -25.2% 48% -28.7%
15% -32.4% 44% -35.6%
20% -39.1% 40% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses60 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$8 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records