Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd31a…5f51
crypto · 1806 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$328 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$329 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$91
Realized+$329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses740 / 539
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1279 / 1806
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day286.6
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 23 History 1279 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$727
7 days−$88
14 days+$329
30 days+$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 20¢ 100¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+400%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 20¢ 100¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+400%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 20¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+149%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 3? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 3? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 26? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% +$1,183
weather 20% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 35m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1023 +5.9% -4.2% 54% 37% -11.9%
≤30d 1279 +17.3% +6.2% 58% 41% -2.8%
≤90d 1279 +17.3% +6.2% 58% 41% -2.8%
all 1279 +17.3% +6.2% 58% 41% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover286.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.2% 41% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -4.0% 37% -12.1%
15% -13.3% 35% -20.6%
20% -21.8% 33% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.19 · official $90.07 · 3500 history records