Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd31a…386e
politics · 8 markets active 642d ago
0.0score
+$1,766,565 +103%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,766,565 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,766,565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage231d
Avg bet$213,877
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump convicted of felony before Election? May 19 $362 −$362 -100%
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? May 19 $2,820 −$2,820 -100%
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? May 19 $8,964 −$8,964 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? May 19 $155,939 +$330,056 +212%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi May 19 $296,525 +$654,847 +221%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $1,189,296 +$782,065 +66%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? Nov 08 $7,113 +$16,320 +229%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Feb 12 $50,000 −$4,577 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 100% +$1,766,565
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $1,859 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $2 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $2 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $88 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $2 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $88 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $2 641d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY No 33¢ $2 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $2 641d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY No 34¢ $2 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $2 641d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY No 33¢ $1,312 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $159 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $88 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $155 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $88 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $1,145 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $88 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $68 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $76 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $155 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $155 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $155 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $88 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $155 641d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY No 33¢ $293 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $88 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 33¢ $2,648 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 32¢ $85 641d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 32¢ $85 641d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 +52.3% +37.8% 50% 50% +83.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.8% 50% +83.9%
10% ← realistic here +24.6% 50% +66.3%
15% +12.6% 50% +50.2%
20% +1.5% 50% +35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records