Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd319…2a51 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$376 (-28%) realized −$375 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%43W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$20
sports 27% −$357
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 38 -2.3% -11.6% 95% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 44 -2.0% -11.3% 95% 0% -11.4%
all 47 -4.0% -13.1% 91% 0% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -35.7%
10% -21.4% 0% -41.9%
15% -29.0% 0% -47.5%
20% -36.0% 0% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$126 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$375
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses43 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage146d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? No 100¢ 98¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 22? No 100¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Clara Tauson win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 11? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 10? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 10? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 9? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 4? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $100 on June 2? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 1? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 30? Jun 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? May 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 29? May 30 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 28? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 26? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 25? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 21? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 19? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 18? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 18? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 27? Jan 31 $1 $0 +0%
UNCG Spartans vs. The Citadel Bulldogs Jan 31 $357 −$357 -100%
Will Jared Cannonier be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Jan 27 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 10d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $14 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $33 10d
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Solana reach $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Solana reach $100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 23d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $11 24d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 29? BUY Yes 96¢ $31 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.35 · official $47.35 (match) · 98 history records