Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd318…a9b9 other 574 markets active 9h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+0%) realized +$124 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate56%315W / 251L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$79
crypto 43% +$49
world 1% −$1
sports 0% −$24
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +23.9% +12.1% 64% 64% -1.0%
≤30d 36 +23.9% +12.1% 64% 64% -1.0%
≤90d 360 -16.6% -24.5% 44% 35% -10.7%
all 566 -1.1% -10.5% 56% 37% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 37% -9.2%
10% -19.0% 31% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 24% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses315 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)566 / 574
History coverage347d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 34¢ 25¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will Umar Nurmagomedov become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in July 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -24%
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $1 +$1 +54%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +163%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +130%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will "Europe" be said 10+ times during Eurovision? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Charles Oliveira next? May 16 $1 $0 -24%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 16 $2 $0 +15%
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, May 10 $2 +$3 +172%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 08 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 08 $2 $0 +6%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1 $0 +34%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 07 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No $3 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No $2 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No $1 9h
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week SELL Yes 55¢ $2 9h
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes $1 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 22h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $2 22h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $2 22h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 58¢ $1 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $1 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.66 · official $10.67 (match) · 1866 history records