Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd318…25bd other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% $0
other 15% −$5
politics 4% −$4
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% −$2
weather 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 18 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 11% -9.5%
all 49 -10.3% -18.9% 45% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 6% -10.9%
10% -26.6% 2% -19.4%
15% -33.7% 0% -27.2%
20% -40.2% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage462d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $43 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $76 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $41 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $46 −$6 -12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 20 $1 $0 +28%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 +13%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Berrettini win Wimbledon 2025? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -60%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -76%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 23 $2 −$1 -32%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $2 $0 +19%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 28 $0 $0 -17%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.125 in March? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Opus' gross less than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $11 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $39 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $10 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $9 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $2 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $45 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $43 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $39 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $39 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $38 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $24 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $16 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $41 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records