Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:28:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd318…6f23 sports 452 markets active 3d ago coverage 43d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-3%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate36%161W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$176
other 17% −$20
crypto 10% −$29
finance 3% −$9
politics 1% −$1
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.1% -2.2% 24% 19% -8.3%
≤30d 247 -4.2% -13.4% 31% 15% -14.6%
≤90d 451 -5.0% -14.1% 36% 21% -14.7%
all 451 -5.0% -14.1% 36% 21% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 21% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 11% -22.8%
15% -29.8% 4% -30.3%
20% -36.7% 2% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses161 / 290
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)451 / 452
History coverage43d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $4 $0 -5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +172%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $6 −$1 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 10 $2 $0 -8%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 07 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $6 $0 -5%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +14%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $5 $0 -7%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $1 $0 -17%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $3 $0 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $2 $0 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 28 $31 −$2 -6%
Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Tommaso Compagnucci May 27 $16 −$2 -11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2 $0 -7%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $2 $0 -6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $3 −$3 -74%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $3 −$2 -69%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $9 −$1 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 24 $13 −$1 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $12 −$1 -8%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 $0 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti May 24 $2 $0 +11%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winne May 24 $2 −$1 -25%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 24 $2 $0 -4%
Roland Garros WTA: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Caty McNally May 24 $14 −$1 -6%
Roland Garros WTA: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Wang May 24 $7 $0 -5%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 24 $2 $0 +14%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 24 $1 $0 -9%
Roland Garros ATP: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan May 24 $6 $0 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Gabriel Diallo May 24 $2 $0 -14%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 May 24 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 63¢ $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 72¢ $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 49¢ $2 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $2 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 48¢ $2 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 47¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 48¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $2 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 52¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 53¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 61¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 56¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 2628 history records