Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd313…c589 crypto 215 markets active 6d ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-16%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%81W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$127
other 5% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -15.2% -23.3% 35% 32% -23.2%
≤30d 98 -15.2% -23.3% 35% 32% -23.2%
≤90d 215 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 33% -29.4%
all 215 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 33% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 33% -29.4%
10% -30.4% 27% -36.2%
15% -37.2% 24% -42.3%
20% -43.3% 20% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses81 / 134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)215 / 215
History coverage71d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 215 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -61%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -72%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -81%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 487 history records