trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -54.6% | -58.9% | 0% | 0% | -66.2% |
| ≤30d | 24 | -6.2% | -15.1% | 25% | 25% | -33.0% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -6.2% | -15.1% | 25% | 25% | -33.0% |
| all | 24 | -6.2% | -15.1% | 25% | 25% | -33.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.1% | 25% | -33.0% |
| 10% | -23.2% | 21% | -39.4% |
| 15% | -30.6% | 17% | -45.3% |
| 20% | -37.4% | 12% | -50.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 12¢ | $2,974 | $2,113 | −$861 (-29%) |
| Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 10¢ | $100 | $63 | −$37 (-37%) |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 2¢ | $48 | $21 | −$27 (-56%) |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Yes | 34¢ | 4¢ | $68 | $9 | −$59 (-87%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | $20 | $8 | −$11 (-57%) |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | Yes | 13¢ | 1¢ | $100 | $7 | −$93 (-93%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $234 | −$159 | -68% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $911 | −$124 | -14% |
| Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $133 | −$133 | -100% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $77 | −$77 | -100% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 15 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | Jun 15 | $50 | −$28 | -56% |
| Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $34 | −$3 | -8% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $21 | −$1 | -6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 14 | $3,368 | −$929 | -28% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 14 | $1,161 | −$1,061 | -91% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $801 | −$391 | -49% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | Jun 11 | $427 | −$427 | -100% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | Jun 11 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 08 | $725 | −$198 | -27% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 08 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? | Jun 08 | $40 | +$59 | +148% |
| Will Trump say "State" 5+ times during Tele-Rally? | Jun 08 | $51 | −$51 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 29 | $200 | +$29 | +15% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 28 | $580 | +$132 | +23% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | May 26 | $825 | −$133 | -16% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? | May 25 | $200 | +$706 | +353% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? | May 25 | $100 | +$465 | +465% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 24 | $858 | +$322 | +38% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 23 | $135 | −$135 | -100% |