Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd312…5c54
politics · 125 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$54 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$54 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 114
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage107d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mavericks 31¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Suns Hornets 64¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mavericks 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Nets vs. Heat Nets 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Spurs Celtics 42¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers Pacers 23¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Heat vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 58¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Nuggets Warriors 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mavericks 24¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Pelicans Pelicans 31¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Jazz Jazz 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $109 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $233 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $54 $0 -1%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $108 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$4
politics 34% −$4
sports 14% −$47
crypto 3% $0
world 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 14d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 22d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 23d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 24d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 24d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 25d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 26d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 27d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 27d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 28d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $45 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 114 -4.0% -13.2% 6% 4% -9.7%
all 124 -6.1% -15.1% 8% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 6% -10.2%
10% -23.2% 5% -18.8%
15% -30.6% 2% -26.6%
20% -37.4% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 336 history records