Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd311…61b4 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$253 (+8%) realized −$331 · open +$584
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$15
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 72% +$510
other 26% +$103
crypto 1% +$12
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-53.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -60.7% -64.5% 15% 11% -7.5%
≤30d 31 -48.6% -53.5% 19% 16% -5.3%
≤90d 31 -48.6% -53.5% 19% 16% -5.3%
all 31 -48.6% -53.5% 19% 16% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.5% 16% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -58.0% 16% -14.3%
15% -62.0% 10% -22.6%
20% -65.8% 10% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$5 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2,785
Realized−$331
Unrealized+$584
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage16d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,534 $2,005 +$470 (+31%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $545 $698 +$153 (+28%)
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $116 $81 −$36 (-31%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -82%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -66%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 +$12 +301%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 16 $91 +$2 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $411 +$117 +28%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 16 $22 −$12 -52%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 16 $62 −$52 -84%
Will Broadcom be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $15 −$3 -18%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 11 $7 −$4 -60%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 11 $14 −$12 -85%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 11 $8 −$4 -54%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 07 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 04 $23 −$9 -40%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 04 $8 +$10 +119%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $36 +$20 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $3 11m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $2 15m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $2 15m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $2 16m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $3 16m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $2 16m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $5 16m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 2¢ $11 16m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $2 16m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 2¢ $5 17m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $5 20m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $22 20m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 2¢ $15 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,785.16 · official $2,786.83 (match) · 593 history records