Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D3 0xd311…1c1e other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$46 (-1%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%47W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$138
14 days+$165
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$234
world 27% −$232
tech 15% +$184
crypto 12% −$168
finance 7% −$122
sports 3% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +15.6% +4.6% 58% 58% +29.9%
≤30d 35 +10.5% -0.1% 57% 54% +14.0%
≤90d 42 +20.1% +8.6% 55% 52% +11.5%
all 87 +10.9% +0.3% 54% 45% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 45% -10.8%
10% -9.3% 43% -19.3%
15% -18.0% 37% -27.1%
20% -26.1% 32% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses47 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage147d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 27 $51 +$58 +112%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 27 $21 +$5 +26%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$12 +238%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$30 +49%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$7 +146%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $71 +$7 +10%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 30 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? May 11 $10 +$7 +73%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 10 $20 −$20 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $5 +$34 +657%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $19 +$28 +146%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Mar 24 $210 −$128 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 23 $21 −$17 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 23 $211 −$164 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$1 -8%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 68¢ $109 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? SELL No 6¢ $26 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 4¢ $21 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 33h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 33h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 33h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Hal BUY 32¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $51 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Brazil vs. Haiti: BUY 31¢ $5 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $20 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 223 history records